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【讨论风暴】北太平洋NP12-20241213

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数值预报强烈看好,OPC已发布HFWW,可能冲击940-hPa


IP属地:吉林1楼2024-12-13 13:16回复
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    IP属地:广东来自Android客户端2楼2024-12-13 13:17
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      总算来了,数值很早就有反应的东西,目前还在日本上空是个锋


      IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端3楼2024-12-13 13:19
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        ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
        .30 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 40N157E 972 MB. WITHIN
        480 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.
        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 47N171W 938 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
        WINDS 70 TO 100 KT. SEAS 24 TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S
        SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 45 TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 TO
        40 FT...EXCEPT 13 TO 27 FT IN NW QUADRANT. ALSO WITHIN 1200 NM S
        SEMICIRCLE...AND 360 NM NW AND 600 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45
        KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 18 FT IN NW AND NE QUADRANTS.


        IP属地:吉林4楼2024-12-13 13:22
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          STORM WARNING.
          DEVELOPING LOW 1018 HPA
          AT 31N 134E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 25 KNOTS.
          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
          SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
          FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33N 139E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
          MILES RADIUS.
          FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 38N 150E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
          MILES RADIUS.


          IP属地:吉林5楼2024-12-13 13:33
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            注意到OPC上望100KT/938hPa,如果实现将会成为北太平洋有记录以来风速最强温带气旋之一。印象里以前还从来没看到过OPC预报北太平洋100KT大温气。


            IP属地:吉林6楼2024-12-13 13:43
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              IP属地:吉林7楼2024-12-13 13:47
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                IP属地:吉林8楼2024-12-13 14:00
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                  IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端9楼2024-12-13 15:01
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                    IP属地:吉林10楼2024-12-13 17:51
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                      EC和ICON均报出该温气可能刷出60m/s左右的阵风,GFS则报了50m/s阵风,这在北太平洋温气里面非常罕见




                      IP属地:吉林11楼2024-12-13 18:00
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                        ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
                        .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST W OF AREA NEAR 40N156E 975 MB. WITHIN
                        720 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE
                        WITHIN 480 NM NE AND 900 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
                        8 TO 13 FT. ALSO WITHIN 960 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS
                        TO 12 FT.
                        .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N172E 938 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE
                        WINDS 70 TO 95 KT. SEAS 24 TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM S
                        SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM NW AND 360 NM NE QUADRANTS WINDS 45 TO 70
                        KT. SEAS 21 TO 42 FT...EXCEPT 13 TO 27 FT IN NW QUADRANT. ALSO
                        WITHIN 1260 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND 300 NM NW AND 540 NM NE
                        QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 18 FT
                        IN NW AND NE QUADRANTS.


                        IP属地:吉林12楼2024-12-13 18:40
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                          STORM WARNING.
                          DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
                          AT 31N 136E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING ENE 30 KNOTS.
                          EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
                          SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.
                          FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 34N 144E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
                          MILES RADIUS.
                          FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40N 155E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 80
                          MILES RADIUS.
                          ——————————
                          LOW 1012 HPA AT 37N 136E EAST 15 KT.
                          ——————————
                          按照数值预报该温带气旋貌似可能是这两个系统合并而成,但是JMA目前分开算而且SW给了日本以南那个,而OPC只有北边那个。


                          IP属地:吉林13楼2024-12-13 18:41
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                            IP属地:吉林14楼2024-12-13 18:47
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                              各数值对NP12的阵风预报都非常高潮,不过持续风预报就没那么高了









                              IP属地:吉林15楼2024-12-13 19:29
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