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其实澳洲也是拉尼娜洋区

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During La Niña, there are typically more tropical cyclones in the Australia region, with twice as many making landfall than during El Niño years on average 5. The first cyclone to cross the Australian coast also tends to occur earlier in the season. The only years with multiple severe tropical cyclone landfalls in Queensland have been La Niña years 6. This means an increased likelihood of major damage and flooding related to strong winds, high seas and heavy rains from tropical cyclones.
Years are determined from Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) values of the PSL MEI.ext index. ENSO events are most clearly defined in northern winter (DJF), both in terms of impacts and robustness with regard to the ENSO index used. Other seasons have impacts, too, but do not necessarily match the winter seasons.


IP属地:四川1楼2025-01-24 18:36回复
    澳洲区拉尼娜年登陆数是厄尔尼诺年的两倍
    厄尔尼诺年活跃度是比较低的
    ace角度厄尔尼诺年劣势木那么大
    因为厄年一般路径比较长
    On average, there are fewer tropical cyclones in the Australian region during El Niño years. This is particularly true around Queensland, where cyclones are half as likely to cross the coast during El Niño years compared to neutral years. This means a decreased likelihood of major damage and flooding related to strong winds, high seas and heavy rains associated with tropical cyclones.


    IP属地:四川2楼2025-01-24 18:40
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      2025-08-03 19:59:36
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      The main result of this study is the demonstration that there exists a statistically significant difference in TC numbers between positive-neutral and negative-neutral regimes (averages of 11 and 14.4 yr−1, respectively), as also found between El Niño and La Niña (averages of 8.8 and 15.2 yr−1, respectively).
      澳洲区tc数量(1970-2009)
      厄年平均8.8
      暖中平均11
      冷中平均14.4
      拉年平均15.2


      IP属地:四川3楼2025-01-24 18:41
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        总之你吧现在很明显无脑抹黑拉尼娜
        没什么好说的


        IP属地:四川4楼2025-01-24 18:44
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          拉尼娜洋区还有北大和北印
          和前两个不一样
          澳洲的活跃度是随着变暖下降的
          可能是因为itcz高纬化导致很长时间的itcz都上岸了


          IP属地:四川5楼2025-01-24 18:46
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            一句话形容澳洲洋区:老兵不死,只会逐渐凋零


            IP属地:广东来自Android客户端6楼2025-01-24 19:53
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              吃辐合带的洋区肯定受影响的


              IP属地:天津来自iPhone客户端7楼2025-01-24 20:16
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                Tropical cyclone (TC) observations are used to examine changes in the TC climatology of the Australian region. The ability to investigate long-term changes in TC numbers improves when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered. Removing variability in TC numbers associated with ENSO shows a significant decreasing trend in TC numbers at the 93–98% confidence level. Additionally, there is some indication of a temporal change in the relationship between ENSO and TC numbers, with ENSO accounting for about 35–50% of the variance in TC numbers during the first half of the study period, but only 10% during the second half.


                IP属地:四川8楼2025-01-24 21:12
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                  2025-08-03 19:53:36
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                  拉迷驾到


                  IP属地:广东来自Android客户端9楼2025-01-24 23:38
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                    如果改用cumulative power dissipation index (PDI)累积耗散能量指数
                    东太居然是唯一一个增加的


                    IP属地:四川10楼2025-01-24 23:56
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                      在这里放张表吧
                      从中不难看出,上世纪(1979-2000)的拉年澳洲明显强于厄年,只是新世纪拉年衰落了,掉到了跟厄年差不多的水平。包括整个南半球也是,原来拉年厄年水平都差不多的。原因可能是新世纪拉年增多且澳洲南太都偏弱(南印影响不明显),导致出现了大量200-拉低平均(79-00没有一年是200-,上一个可查的200-可能是1969)8个200-有6年是拉年
                      还有,新世纪活跃年份的数量也显著减少,新世纪25年中,南太3个100+、澳洲3个100+、南印3个150+,而上世纪22年中,南太7个100+、澳洲11个100+、南印5个150+。总年份差不多(上世纪甚至略少)的情况下出现如此显著的减少,足以证明衰落的程度(不活跃年份也是显著增多的,这里就不说了)


                      IP属地:辽宁来自iPhone客户端11楼2025-07-20 19:29
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