冷涡在水汽图上很明显

无论如何，南半球暂时五旋共舞

即将进入发展窗口，要在冷涡流出下搞一波快速发展

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GARANCE)
2.A POSITION 2025/02/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 52.4 E
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
24H: 2025/02/26 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
48H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
60H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
72H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
120H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 110

SH, 22, 2025022518, , BEST, 0, 180S, 525E, 40, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 20, 20, 45, 1010, 140, 25, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, GARANCE, M,

TPXS12 PGTW 251832
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE)
B. 25/1730Z
C. 18.17S
D. 52.14E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET & PT YIELD 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

TXXS25 KNES 251744
TCSSIO
A. 22S (GARANCE)
B. 25/1700Z
C. 18.0S
D. 52.5E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS MORE THAN 1/3 INTO THE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN
A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS 2.0. THE PT IS 2.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
25/1520Z 18.0S 52.3E SSMIS
...TURK

TPXS12 PGTW 252137
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE)
B. 25/2030Z
C. 17.74S
D. 52.51E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

紧菊卷的就是快

TXXS25 KNES 252350
TCSSIO
A. 22S (GARANCE)
B. 25/2315Z
C. 17.1S
D. 54.2E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...7.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -89 C. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

较早前，高低层分离不明显

TPXS12 PGTW 260041
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE)
B. 25/2330Z
C. 17.86S
D. 52.81E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET & PT YIELD 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN