2

南半球今年数量要破30

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
2.A POSITION 2025/02/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 38.0 E
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/02/26 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 120
24H: 2025/02/26 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 295 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
36H: 2025/02/27 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 305 SW: 400 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2025/02/27 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2025/02/28 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 270 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45
72H: 2025/02/28 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 55
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/03/01 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
120H: 2025/03/02 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55

随着23S升格为TS（并且19P Rae是SS），似乎创下了一个纪录：在ATCF系统里（JTWC），南半球首次有6个达到TS强度的（副）热带气旋在同一时间活动，相关数据来自ibtracs的文件。
JTWC的官评确实不怎么可靠，不过也姑且看看。在过去的官评里，南半球曾经四次5旋共舞，分别是：
1985年的Celestina、Eric、SH12、Nigel、Odette
1986年的Erinesta、Filomena、Ima、June、Keli
1989年的Hanitra-Leon、Hinano、Judy、SH16、Ivy
1992年的Farida、Harriet-Heather、Esau、Ian、Gerda
（北半球最高是8旋共舞：1992年，Roslyn、Seymour、Bonnie、Tina、Ted、Charley、Danielle、Val）

TPXS11 PGTW 252138
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (SE OF BEIRA)
B. 25/2030Z
C. 22.82S
D. 37.59E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1713Z 22.57S 37.60E GPMI
TIMMERMAN

升格还是晚了，上一张就能给，不过这玩意环流好大

壮哉我大南半球！

TXXS26 KNES 252345
TCSSIO
A. 23S (NONAME)
B. 25/2315Z
C. 23.0S
D. 37.9E
E. THREE/MET-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. SOLID ORGANIZATION
LAST 6 HR. 6 HR AVG GIVES A DT=2.7 SO CONSTRAINTS BROKEN. CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -88 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW STEADILY IMPROVING ALQDS. MET=1.5
AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON 6 HR AVG DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HONDE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 38.4 E

命名有一会了

TPXS11 PGTW 260037
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (SE OF BEIRA)
B. 25/2330Z
C. 23.00S
D. 38.35E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN