TXPS42 PHFO 250543
TCSSP2
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0526 UTC TUE FEB 25 2025
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE (09F/94P)
B. 25/0500Z
C. 23.3S
D. 178.5W
E. HIMAWARI-9/GOES-18
F. 3.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS
G. VIS/IR/EIR
H. REMARKS....SHEAR PATTERN WITH CENTER LESS THAN 3/4 DEG OF DG
YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. REANALYZED
24/1700Z FIX RESULTING IN A CI OF 5.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
25/0401Z 23.2S 178.8W SSMIS
$$

昨天是被切崩了

TPPS10 PGTW 250605
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE)
B. 25/0530Z
C. 23.70S
D. 178.38W
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.5/3.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
2NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT AGREES WITH
DT. DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0043Z 22.45S 179.03W CWVR
25/0124Z 23.00S 179.03W ATMS
25/0401Z 23.08S 178.77W SSMS
PETERSEN

TXPS23 KNES 250634
TCSWSP
A. 19P (RAE)
B. 25/0530Z
C. 23.3S
D. 178.5W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T4.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT LIES WITHIN 1/3 DEGREE OF AN AREA OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY
WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS
3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN INTENSITY TO 1.5
T NUMBERS OVER 12 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
25/0359Z 23.2S 178.8W SSMIS
...HOSLEY

SH, 19, 2025022506, , BEST, 0, 236S, 1785W, 60, 988, TS,

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生 签发：向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 25 日 18 时
“雷埃”向南偏东方向移动
时 间：25日14时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“雷埃”，RAE
中心位置：南纬23.6度、西经178.1度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：987百帕
参考位置：汤加努库阿洛法西南方向约405公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“雷埃”强度维持不变
预报结论：“雷埃”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

图4 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年02月25日14时00分）

巅峰差不多100kt？

TPPS10 PGTW 250857
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE)
B. 25/0830Z
C. 24.15S
D. 178.09W
E. FIVE/HMWRI9
F. T2.0/3.0/W3.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM
OF COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET
YIELDS A 3.5. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0401Z 23.08S 178.77W SSMS
PETERSEN

共舞的几个全是速生速死型的

24h变化猛烈趋势
这个给MH，勉勉强强吧（长时间LG+OW，但并没有更好，B应该没合格过任何一帧，巅峰想给到11-12z

TXPS42 PHFO 251129
TCSSP2
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1128 UTC TUE FEB 25 2025
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE (09F/19P)
B. 25/1100Z
C. 24.3S
D. 178.0W
E. HIMAWARI-9/GOES-18
F. 3.0/4.0/W2.0/24 HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS....SHEAR PATTERN. LLCC GREATER THAN 1 1/4 DEG FROM DG
YIELDS DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. FT BASED ON PT AS CLOUD
FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
25/0756Z 23.9S 178.2W GMI
$$
SHIGESATO

回来后看着BD沉默了真就光速趋势呗