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回复:【讨论旋风】南太平洋旋风SH212025

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又一个达到W的OST



IP属地:上海32楼2025-02-25 12:33
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    命名Seru


    IP属地:辽宁来自Android客户端33楼2025-02-25 13:25
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      TPPS13 PGTW 250623
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
      B. 25/0540Z
      C. 16.97S
      D. 170.78E
      E. FIVE/GK2A
      F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
      G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
      H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
      YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO
      DT.
      I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
      25/0040Z 16.30S 170.57E CWVR
      25/0232Z 16.57S 171.12E AMS2
      PETERSEN


      IP属地:福建34楼2025-02-25 14:30
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        TXPS43 PHFO 250629
        TCSSP3
        SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
        NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
        0551 UTC TUE FEB 25 2025
        A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU (96P/21P)
        B. 25/0500Z
        C. 17.4S
        D. 170.9E
        E. HIMAWARI-9/GOES-18
        F. 3.5/3.5/D2.0/24 HRS
        G. VIS/IR/EIR
        H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
        OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FT BASED ON PT
        AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
        I. ADDL POSITIONS
        25/0232 16.5S 170.7E ASMR2
        $$


        IP属地:福建35楼2025-02-25 14:30
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          TXPS43 PHFO 250643 CCA
          TCSSP3
          SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
          NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
          0551 UTC TUE FEB 25 2025
          A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU (10F/21P)
          B. 25/0500Z
          C. 17.4S
          D. 170.9E
          E. HIMAWARI-9/GOES-18
          F. 3.5/3.5/D2.0/24 HRS
          G. VIS/IR/EIR
          H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
          OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FT BASED ON PT
          AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
          I. ADDL POSITIONS
          25/0232 16.5S 170.7E ASMR2
          $$


          IP属地:福建36楼2025-02-25 14:46
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            SH, 21, 2025022506, , BEST, 0, 170S, 1709E, 65, 980, TY,


            IP属地:福建37楼2025-02-25 14:53
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              TXPS24 KNES 250654
              TCSWSP
              A. 21P (SERU)
              B. 25/0530Z
              C. 17.0S
              D. 170.7E
              E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
              F. T2.5/2.5
              G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
              H. REMARKS...5.5/10 W BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 1.5 AND
              THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE
              IN INTENSITY OVER 6 HOURS TO 0.5 T NUMBERS FOR RECENTLY DEVELOPED SYSTEMS.
              I. ADDL POSITIONS
              25/0234Z 16.8S 170.3E AMSR2
              ...HOSLEY


              IP属地:福建38楼2025-02-25 14:58
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                21P SERU 250225 0600 17.0S 170.9E SHEM 60 986


                IP属地:福建39楼2025-02-25 15:03
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                  TPPS13 PGTW 250702
                  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
                  B. 25/0541Z
                  C. 16.97S
                  D. 170.78E
                  E. FIVE/GK2A
                  F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
                  G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
                  H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. IRREGULAR CDO OF 235NM IN
                  DIAMETER YIELDS A CF OF 3.0. ADDED 2.0 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT OF
                  5.0. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT. RE-EVALUATED FOR
                  INTENSITY DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
                  I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
                  25/0232Z 16.57S 171.12E AMS2
                  PETERSEN


                  IP属地:福建40楼2025-02-25 15:15
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                    IP属地:广东来自Android客户端41楼2025-02-25 15:26
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                      STORM WARNING 101 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 250720 UTC.
                      TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED
                      NEAR 17.0 SOUTH 170.6 EAST AT 250600 UTC.
                      POSITION FAIR.
                      REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 170.6E at 250600 UTC.
                      CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
                      EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
                      55 KNOTS BY 251800 UTC.
                      EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                      AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                      AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                      AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
                      FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.3S 171.2E AT 251800 UTC
                      AND NEAR 19.7S 172.1E AT 260600 UTC.
                      ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
                      REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
                      NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
                      AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
                      THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 099.


                      IP属地:福建42楼2025-02-25 15:40
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                        IP属地:福建43楼2025-02-25 16:15
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                          全球热带气旋监测公报
                          预报:柳龙生 签发:向纯怡 2025 年 02 月 25 日 18 时
                          南太平洋一级热带气旋“塞鲁”生成
                          时 间:25日14时(北京时)
                          海 域:南太平洋
                          命 名:“塞鲁”,SERU
                          中心位置:南纬17.0度、东经170.6度
                          强度等级:一级热带气旋
                          最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)
                          中心气压:987百帕
                          参考位置:新喀里多尼亚努美阿东北方向约720公里的洋面上
                          变化过程:“塞鲁”生成并加强到9级
                          预报结论:“塞鲁”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向南偏东方向移动,强度逐渐增强。

                          图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2025年02月25日14时00分)


                          IP属地:福建44楼2025-02-25 16:51
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                            3/4圈


                            IP属地:江苏来自Android客户端45楼2025-02-25 17:03
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                              TPPS13 PGTW 250913
                              A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU)
                              B. 25/0840Z
                              C. 17.23S
                              D. 171.09E
                              E. FIVE/GK2A
                              F. T5.0/5.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
                              G. IR/EIR
                              H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
                              5.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.
                              I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
                              PETERSEN


                              IP属地:福建46楼2025-02-25 17:21
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