另外08z对比11z，可以看到风切影响还是挺大的

TPPS12 PGTW 231454
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 23/1430Z
C. 14.31S
D. 153.54E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1. ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1058Z 14.27S 153.08E MMHS
23/1206Z 14.38S 153.83E MMHS
RAE

看了一下，还是131L的结论比较合理，明天再看吧各位

这边建议回顾一下布拉万的发展过程冷静一下
同样是对流覆盖中心并且带卷绕，但就是CCC

NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED
IDENTIFIER: 22U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 14.2S
LONGITUDE: 153.8E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST (090 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 4 KNOTS (7 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 24/0000: 14.2S 154.3E: 035 (070): 050 (095): 989
+12: 24/0600: 14.3S 154.7E: 045 (085): 055 (100): 985
+18: 24/1200: 14.4S 155.0E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 981
+24: 24/1800: 14.6S 155.2E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 981
+36: 25/0600: 15.0S 155.6E: 075 (135): 070 (130): 973
+48: 25/1800: 15.5S 156.0E: 090 (160): 070 (130): 974
+60: 26/0600: 16.4S 156.3E: 100 (190): 075 (140): 970
+72: 26/1800: 17.3S 156.5E: 125 (235): 075 (140): 970
+96: 27/1800: 19.0S 156.7E: 165 (305): 070 (130): 971
+120: 28/1800: 20.5S 156.6E: 210 (390): 060 (110): 978

18P ALFRED 250223 1800 14.2S 153.5E SHEM 55 992

TPPS12 PGTW 231825
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 23/1730Z
C. 14.27S
D. 153.64E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SWANSON

TXPS22 KNES 231843
TCSWSP
A. 18P (ALFRED)
B. 23/1730Z
C. 14.5S
D. 153.6E
E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET
IS A 2.5 DUE TO A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH DT. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NGUYEN

TPPS12 PGTW 232129
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED)
B. 23/2030Z
C. 14.00S
D. 153.61E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1725Z 14.28S 153.58E SSMS
SWANSON

爆发形态

再次猛烈卷绕

像啊，很像啊（指中间的暗斑像是眼区）